(CARICOM Secretariat, Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, Guyana) I am much honoured to share a few remarks with you today on the opening of the 36th Standing Committee of Caribbean Statisticians and the 21st Regional Census Coordinating Committee meetings. It is just two years ago that I had the opportunity to address the High Level Advocacy Forum on Statistics that was held in Trinidad and Tobago. From what I can recall, one of the main objectives of the forum, which had a similar theme as the two meetings being held this week, was to bring greater attention to the importance of high-quality official statistics in confronting the challenges of the global economic crisis.
The forum was also the clarion call for governments in the CARICOM region to make greater investments in statistics, as it was abundantly clear that there were and still are deficiencies in the responsiveness of our national statistical systems to the global economic crisis. For those of us who think this criticism is specific to the Caribbean Community, let me hasten to say that it is also true of the developed countries and therefore true of the entire global statistical system. As you are fully aware, the “Occupy Wall Street” demonstrations around the world indicate that the global crisis is not over. In the US, the national unemployment rate has doubled to almost 10 ten percent while double-digit rates are common in our region.
I would imagine that after the High Level Advocacy Forum on Statistics a series of action plans were agreed upon and taken to improve the situation. While I will not ask what have been the outcomes of these actions, experience tells me the call for our governments to invest in statistics as a priority in the Region and for international organizations to assist in mobilizing more resources to this cause is still relevant as it was two years ago. It is my understanding that the development of statistics in the region has benefited handsomely from the European Union and other development partners. In fact, if you were to remove the European Development Fund, one can only imagine the myriad of difficulties and challenges we would still be experiencing in the improvement of statistics and other areas of national importance.
The Caribbean Community, which was established in July 1973, is in its 39th year of existence, comprising originally of four member states namely, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Jamaica. Today, the Community, which has evolved from a Common Market to a Single Market and Economy, is made up of fifteen member states and five associate member states together with a population of over seventeen million. Despite the criticisms of the body and the many obstacles it has faced, it is clear that it will not disappear and therefore we have a collective responsibility for its development and prosperity.
If you would allow me a few minutes, I would like to reflect on the theme for the two statistical meetings “Recognising the Essential Role of Statistics in the Development of the Caribbean Community”. This theme brings into sharp focus the need for public policy decisions to be based on high quality statistics. So what are the essential roles of statistics that the theme is referring to? According to the experts, there are at least five essential roles that statistics play in development.
Firstly, statistics are essential in forecasting a country’s future social and economic development. Government, for example, is keenly interested in the level of expenditure needed to sustain and improve its various services. Given that the bulk of government expenditures are financed from tax revenues, the national statistical office and the central bank, in particular, must be able to forecast with a high degree of accuracy the performance of several social and economic indicators. Ceteris paribus, other things being equal, the extent to which estimates vary from their true value is indicative of the wastage or the deprivation that will be experienced by national economies. Since we cannot afford neither of these possibilities, it is imperative that our technocrats are provided with the requisite resources to do all that is necessary to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the figures they produce. Similarly, it is critical that policy makers even when it might be expedient to do otherwise make full use of the data that are provided to them.
A second role of statistics is to assist in identifying and bringing recognition to policy issues. While anecdotes are helpful in explaining a problem, they are particularly not useful to policy makers because they generally lack objectivity and rarely provide a clear definition of the problem at hand, let alone its scope and severity.
Thirdly, statistics play a very important role in informing programme design and policy choice. After a policy issue has been identified, it is necessary to analyse it to get a full understanding of its nature and complexity. Such understanding is crucial for any policy recommendations that are likely to follow.
Fourthly, it is widely accepted that statistics are invaluable in measuring policy implementation. If there is a commitment to ensure that projects are successfully implemented, it is very important that policy makers are able to monitor the inputs, outputs and outcomes of their policies. It is especially important that such information is available at regular intervals so that timely corrective actions and interventions can be taken when key indicators are not going in the direction that they are supposed to go.
Lastly, statistics must contribute in evaluating the impacts of all policies implemented to achieve a desired goal. This requires that detailed attention be given to methodological issues and data needs. In order to measure the impact of its policy interventions, it is extremely important that appropriate counterfactuals are identified.
Ladies and gentlemen, I can confidently assure you that the Government of Belize like most, if not all, governments in the Caribbean Community fully understands and appreciates the importance of high quality statistics in meeting its national development goals and objectives. While I will be the first to agree that we could do a lot more in strengthening our national statistical system, it has not been for lack of will but rather for very limited financial resources. I am very happy to report, however, there are currently several government initiatives in which a lot is being invested in statistical development.
Let me take this opportunity to empathise with the Government and people of St. Vincent and Grenadines who I understand have recently lost nearly all of their 2011 census data due to a fire that gutted that country’s statistical office. It is incumbent on the rest of us in CARICOM and the international community to render any assistance we can for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to conduct another census as soon as possible.
I will now close by wishing you a very successful meeting and that the outcomes will provide a blueprint to inform the further development of CARICOM. I too would like to join in wishing all our visitors an enjoyable stay in Belize.
