Agriculture has the potential for expanding aggregate output and value-added but is now at a cross roads with an overall decline in public sector activity and quietly resurgent private interest, in a number of sub-sectors. To a considerable extent this is the result of policies over the past decade that have liberalised a number of sub-sectors to facilitate and encourage greater private sector participation. Further liberalisation and privatisation will almost certainly continue. In particular the new EU sugar regime is expected to lead to a radically new sugar policy and almost certainly a reduction in direct government intervention and support.

These trends reflect similar trends elsewhere in the world, and are to a large extent reflected in the declining interest of donors to support the sector. At present none of Jamaica’s main donors have any agricultural projects in their pipelines. If the trend continues it will result in public sector investment being limited in the main to those areas of public good such as extension and research for smallholder crops, regulatory controls and some crop and animal disease control, some large-scale irrigation investment, and watershed protection.

The annual survey of living conditions shows that nationally just below 20 % of the population is below the poverty line, as defined by a minimum food consumption basket of 11,700 kcals for a family of five. In the rural areas as might be expected poverty is a little higher at 25%. As such improvements in these indicators are conditional on improvements in the agricultural sector which is the economic mainstay of these rural communities.

Over the past five years or so, the total budget (capital and recurrent) for the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has been around J$2,000 million, equal to about 2.5 % of non-debt central government expenditure or 0.6 % of GDP. The overall reduction in public and private expenditure in the sector among other factors has affected the fortunes of the main traditional export crops including sugar, bananas, coffee, citrus, cocoa and pimento and is partly responsible for the current situation in which the total area cultivated decreased by some 25 % over the period 1968-1996, when the last census was carried out reflecting the rural urban drift as people look for better work opportunities in the towns. It also reflects an important trend in Land-use with significant portions of arable lands going to other sectors such as housing and roads.

The overall strategic framework for developing the sector is contained in the ‘Agricultural Development Strategy (2005-2008)’, the objectives of which are consistent with the goals of the Jagdeo Initative for repositioning the region’s agriculture and rural sectors. The main objectives of the three year rolling strategy are: to contribute to sustainable growth and development through employment, export earnings and food security; to halt the decline of the sector; to restore levels of productivity; and promote expansion of products with viable markets; to promote agro-industries, and to provide meaningful livelihoods, especially for young people in rural areas. The main components of the strategy include:

• Reduction of Praedial Larceny, through better enforcement of the amended Act
• Increased Productivity and Production, especially a 60 % increase in food crops
• More Efficient Use of Land, especially government lands through distribution
• Improved Infrastructure, especially rural road rehabilitation and irrigation networks
• Enhanced Research and Technology Development
• Expanded Extension Services
• Improved Marketing and Access to Credit
• Rationalisation of Trade Policy and Upgrading Food Safety Measures

This extensive list of components with related activities has an overall budget estimate of J$3,907 million over three years, including some J$3,292 million for infrastructure. Funding is expected to come from the Government of Jamaica, External Funding Agencies and the Private sector. In the first year of the three-year period, the total capital investment required is estimated at J$1,400 million, of which it is reported that the GOJ has committed some J$200 million from the total MoA budget subvention of J$1,617 million for the period 2005/06. There is thus a considerable funding gap of JS$1,200 million (US$ 18.6 million) in the first year alone, to be made good by external sources and the private sector.

The proposed investment programme conforms with, and may be seen as giving support to the Agricultural Development Strategy published in June 2005. The programme is comprised of five projects as listed below:

1. Cassava Expansion
2. Forestry
3. Small scale Irrigation Development
4. Coffee Rehabilitation
5. Sea Island Cotton

The preliminary Estimate of the investment costs for these projects is J$2000.8 million (US$31.0 million) with breakdown as shown below: